Bernstein recently published a forecast on the Bitcoin market, stating that a victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election could act as a “bullish” catalyst for the cryptocurrency, while a win for Kamala Harris could serve as a “bearish” factor. According to the experts, in the case of a Trump victory, the value of Bitcoin could reach $90,000 by the end of 2024, while a win for Harris could lead to a drop to between $30,000 and $40,000.
The report, highlighted by CoinDesk, notes that a Trump victory in the November election could significantly influence the cryptocurrency market, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price to $90,000 by the end of the year. Bernstein’s analysis underlines Trump’s supportive stance toward digital assets, given his previous statements and actions. The former president has expressed intentions to transform the United States into the “crypto capital” of the world, which could have far-reaching effects on the sector.
“After three years of regulatory crackdowns, a favorable cryptocurrency regulatory policy could reignite innovation and attract traditional banking users to blockchain-based financial products,” the report states. “The election remains difficult to predict, but if you are long on crypto, you are likely betting on Trump.”
Trump’s main opponent, Kamala Harris, has not publicly clarified her stance on cryptocurrencies, which Bernstein notes as a point of concern for the market. Harris’s victory is perceived as a “bearish” factor for Bitcoin, with experts predicting that her administration could lead to a local price minimum for Bitcoin, potentially testing the $30,000 to $40,000 range.
Despite support from some major players in the crypto space, the community appears to favor Trump overall. Harris’s team has made several attempts to engage with the crypto community, but the results of these efforts remain unclear.
The Potential Impact of a Trump Victory
If Trump secures a win in the presidential race, it could usher in a period of renewed optimism for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Trump’s previous administration was characterized by a deregulatory stance, and his campaign rhetoric suggests a continuation of this approach with a focus on creating a favorable environment for digital assets.
A pro-crypto stance could entail relaxing existing regulations, providing clearer guidance for businesses operating in the crypto space, and promoting the use of blockchain technology in both the public and private sectors. Such measures could lead to increased institutional investment, wider adoption, and an overall bullish market sentiment, pushing Bitcoin’s value towards the $90,000 mark.
The Consequences of a Harris Victory
Conversely, a victory for Kamala Harris could introduce uncertainty and hesitation in the market. With her unclear stance on cryptocurrencies and the potential for more stringent regulations, investors may see her presidency as a signal to reduce exposure to digital assets. This perception could lead to a sell-off or a more cautious approach, driving Bitcoin’s value down to the $30,000-$40,000 range, according to Bernstein’s forecast.
While Harris has made attempts to engage with the crypto community, her ambiguous position may not inspire the confidence needed to prevent a downturn in market sentiment. A more cautious regulatory environment could slow innovation and adoption, limiting Bitcoin’s growth potential.
Conclusion
The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election is set to play a pivotal role in the future of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. A Trump victory could herald a period of significant growth, potentially pushing Bitcoin above $90,000, while a Harris win could result in a bearish trend, testing lower price levels. With the election outcome still uncertain, the market is likely to remain volatile, reflecting the high stakes of this political decision on the future of digital assets.
